How Often Does A Football Match End In A Draw?

Premier League

Let’s start by looking at one of the most popular competitions in world football, the Premier League.

England’s top-flight division is known for its exciting, attacking football, but for every Jürgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola that has managed in it there is a Sam Allardyce or an Ole Gunner Solskjaer. Some managers are just as likely to be boring in their approach and be desperate for a shut-out as others are to be keen on getting on the score sheet.

Here’s a look at over 10 years’ worth of data on the Premier League, starting in 2010.

It’s worth remembering that the latter third of the 2019-2020 season and start of the 2020-21 was interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, with matches taking place behind-closed-doors and with breaks in either half in order to allow players to take drink safely without the risk of cross-contamination of water bottles.

Across 4,180 games over eleven years of Premier League football, then, there were 1016 draws. That is around 24.31% of all matches over an eleven year period ending in a draw, or roughly one in four games. That gives you some indication of how the self-proclaimed ‘greatest league in the world’ isn’t actually all that exciting, with matches ending in a stalemate far more often than some might assume.

The Championship

Whilst the Premier League might sell itself as the most exciting league in the world, those that watch Championship football on a regular basis would suggest that that simply isn’t true.

The nature of the beast in England’s second-tier is such that matches are often filled with goals and games seem to be thrilling. That being said, does the perception live up to the statistical reality when we look at an eleven year period?

Whilst the Championship might well have a reputation of being a thrilling and exciting league, the reality is that there are generally more draws each season as a percentage of total games played. Over an eleven year period, in which 6,072 games were played, 1,660 of them ended up in the spoils being shared.

That amounts to 27.34% of all games, or roughly just over a quarter of all matches that finished in a draw – slightly more than the Premier League.

The Bundesliga

German football is known for being mechanical and precise in its approach to games, with managers that take control of teams in the Bundesliga hardly known for their attacking prowess.

The assumption might well be that the top division in Germany sees more draws than the Premier League, but it is assumptions that often lead us down incorrect paths when it comes to our betting decisions.

The table below looks at the German top-flight over eleven years.

816 draws across 3,366 games might not seem like a huge number, but you do have to remember that German teams play fewer games across a season than their English counterparts on account of the fact that the Bundesliga has 18 teams compared to the 20 in the Premier League.

That’s why the percentage of games is helpful, with 24.24% of matches ending in a draw, or roughly one in four again.

La Liga

If there’s one thing that Spanish football is thought to be then it is exciting.

Teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid arguably give the rest of Europe a false impression of what to expect when it comes to teams from Spain, with those lower down the division far more likely to try to dog out a game than look to fill it with attacking play.

With that in mind, how does Spain compare to the other nations when it comes to draws?

Over the eleven years of Spanish football looked at, there were 1024 draws in 4,180 matches. That works out as 24.50% of all matches that ended with the points being shared, making it not dissimilar to the Premier League’s total of 24.31%.

Admittedly, the three most recent seasons skew the results slightly, with the eight seasons before then amounting to 23.05%, but it’s not a massive change.

Serie A

Whilst Spanish football is known for being full of excitement and attacking intend, football in Italy is known for the exact opposite.

Italian teams are thought of as being defensive and organised, with stopping the opposition from scoring being high on the agenda of sides in Italy.

You would think, therefore, that Serie A would boast the highest draw percentage of all of the top European leagues, but is that the case?

It’s fair to say that the Italian league is the one with the wildest variants from one season to the next, as demonstrated by the 120 draws in 2014-2015 compared to the 80 draws two years later.

Over the eleven years, there were 1060 draws, which amounts to 25.36% of matches. It’s a little more than in other divisions, but perhaps not quite as many as you might expect given the reputation of Italian football.